Economic Justification: Likelihood and Severity of Future ER Eligible Damage

Estimating the likelihood and severity of future damage for both the Repair in-kind and Betterment alternatives requires engineering judgement and critical thinking.

Estimating the likelihood and severity of future damage should apply the best available historic and scientific information available to forecast and assess future risk factors

• Historic Information includes:
  • Cause of damage such as overtopping, scour, plugging, debris landslides
  • Frequency and severity of damage and the cost to repair
  • Recurrent interval of events that have caused damage
• Scientific information includes:
  • Engineering design standards, engineered redundancy, and factors of safety
  • On-going natural processes and rate of change of channel migration, degradation, aggradation, and scour
  • Changes in hydrology due to fires, vegetative management, and land use
  • Changes in rainfall intensity, weather patterns, and sea level

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